A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
